Predicting the future

It’s easy to be pessimistic about the future when we are dealing with a new pandemic that is covered on the news 24x7.  Right now we don’t even know when we’ll be entering the tunnel, let alone see the light at it's end.  This pandemic might be new but the world has seen other episodes with infections diseases before.  I’m thinking of the black plague in the 1300s and the 1930 flu pandemic.  Those two took approximately a quarter of a million lives and at the time humanity didn’t know what they were dealing with nor did they have antibiotics or vaccines for those diseases.

The hope is that in the year 2020 we will figure this one out and that we will do a lot better than in previous plagues.  We have the technology on our side but with 7 billion of us on earth, we now have a lot higher density and greater mobility which are two huge factors going against us.

We are all fighting the virus by staying home, keeping to our social distancing, closing all venues that would normally fit 10 or more people and bringing leisure travel to a halt until we get over the hump.

How does the future look from here?  Which businesses will be affected temporarily and which ones could be changed forever?  The answers to this depend in part on how soon we are able to hold down this beast.  And that remains an open question.  As of today, April 7, 2020, COVID-19 has infected more than 1.5 million people and killed more than 87,000 worldwide. The question is when shall this be over?

A few facts to base my predictions:

·         -The virus is highly contagious and deadly;

·        - Most of us don’t have the antibodies against the virus;

·         -Researchers are looking for a vaccine but this could be a year away;

·         -There is no proven or effective treatment;

·        - People with underlining conditions (such as diabetes or asthma or heart disease) fair much worst than others.

My predictions:

I don’t see us getting back to the social mixing until at least a therapy or a vaccine become available.

June 2020:

A new rapid, portable, Corona Virus test kit becomes available.  People are allowed to start easing back to a “new normal”.   Face masks and gloves are no longer required at supermarkets.  Universities and schools plan to open in the fall, but students will need to be tested before returning.  Restaurants are allowed to reopen but with half as many tables as before -to keep social distancing-.  Restaurants have been improving their online food ordering and delivering and many are planning to continue taking advantage of that.  Airlines will be allowed to book travel for the fall but have to sanitize the planes between flights and keep planes half empty.  Professional and college level sport events have been cancelled until further notice.  The cruise line industry has come to a standstill with no sailings for the rest of 2020.

January 2021:

A cheap, simple, home-based Corona Virus test becomes available worldwide.  A new wave of Corona Virus infection is making authorities and medical personnel panic.  Newly elected President Biden is urging people to return to social distancing for 3 weeks.  Some workers are allowed to continue with proof of absence of exposure to the virus.  Restaurants are finding that they can do a lot more business online so many are dropping their expensive prime real estate.  The film industry has been working in high gear to fill a huge demand for home entertainment.  Stadiums sit empty.  The Cruise line industry plans to promote new lower density cruises to begin next summer, unknown if passengers will take them up on that.

June 2021:

Clinical trials results for new Corona Virus vaccine show promising results in humans.  The stock market soars with the news.

January 2022:

90% of the world population has been vaccinated with a new anti-COVID-19 vaccine.  People go out on the streets and party for a whole month.  Mardi Gras will return but only those with proof of no infections will be allowed on the streets of New Orleans.  Life returns to normal.

Should I go and buy my lottery tickets?  We'll re-read this in a year or two.